Horn Updates

Both the SAF and RSF believe military victory is still achievable — but the conflict has become a grinding stalemate that has displaced over 10 million people and destroyed Sudan's cities. We analyse why negotiations keep collapsing, what external actors are doing, and whether a realistic path out of the war exists.

Ethiopia's drive to secure a Red Sea outlet reflects genuine economic vulnerability — as the world's most populous landlocked country, its entire trade depends on Djibouti. We trace the logic behind Addis Ababa's maritime agenda, why Eritrea is unlikely to cooperate, and what a realistic diplomatic solution might actually look like.

Nairobi has hosted peace talks on South Sudan, Somalia, DRC, and Sudan. Kenya keeps stepping forward because it has genuine economic stakes in regional stability — but a middle power's mediation capacity has real limits. We examine why Kenya is called on so often, what it gains, and where the model breaks down.

Somaliland has maintained peace, held democratic elections, and built functioning institutions for over three decades — yet remains unrecognised by any UN member state. The reasons are less about Somaliland's merit and more about the precedents recognition would set, the interests of neighbouring states, and the African Union's resistance to revisiting colonial-era borders.

Assab — once Ethiopia's principal maritime outlet — has become a symbol of unresolved regional tension. Any attempt to absorb it by force would violate international law and trigger immediate isolation. The more realistic path lies in long-term leasing arrangements and internationally guaranteed port-access deals — but Eritrea has no incentive to offer them.