Why Ethiopia Voted With Israel at the UN
Breaking with Africa and Arab partners: the security logic behind the decision and what it signals about Abiy Ahmed's foreign policy.
Read analysis →Blood Over Gold: Resource Conflicts Killing Thousands
A gold mine attack near Juba kills over 70. Horn Updates analyses the escalating pattern of resource-linked violence across the Horn.
Read analysis →Abiy Ahmed's Dual Gamble: Internal Fragmentation and External Ambition
Ethiopia is fighting the Fano in Amhara, the OLA in Oromia, and managing Tigray's fragile peace, while Abiy simultaneously pushes for Red Sea access and regional dominance. Daniel Haile on whether the two tracks are sustainable.
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Sudan
UAE documented as RSF backer while co-hosting Sudan peace talks; gold networks traced Apr 13, 2026 Why it matters: No Western government has sanctioned an Emirati entity over the RSF connection despite UN documentation. The diplomatic shield is holding and the war continues.→
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Ethiopia
Ethiopia fighting Fano in Amhara, OLA in Oromia, managing Tigray peace; Abiy pursues Red Sea ambition simultaneously Apr 13, 2026 Why it matters: The dual track of internal conflict and external assertiveness is producing costs on both fronts that are beginning to compound each other.→
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Djibouti
Guelleh wins 97.8% for a 6th term; opposition boycotted, 27 years in power Apr 11, 2026 Why it matters: Djibouti hosts more foreign military bases than any other African state. A sixth term with no credible opposition raises questions about what comes after Guelleh, and who controls the Horn's most strategic port.→
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Sudan
Sudan's war turns three: 11 million displaced, famine active in Darfur, no peace process in operation Apr 11, 2026 Why it matters: Three years of the SAF-RSF war has produced the world's largest displacement crisis with almost no sustained international response.→
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South Sudan
South Sudan's 2018 peace agreement showing structural cracks; elections delayed again Apr 11, 2026 Why it matters: The R-ARCSS was always fragile. In 2026, the combination of Kiir-Machar tensions and Sudan's war pressuring oil revenue makes a second collapse more likely than at any point since 2018.→
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Sudan
Sudan's humanitarian crisis: 11 million displaced, famine declared in Darfur Apr 10, 2026 Why it matters: The world's largest displacement crisis is generating almost no international response, and the access situation is getting worse.→
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Kenya
Kenya's economy in 2026: what actually changed after the Gen Z protests Apr 10, 2026 Why it matters: Ruto withdrew the Finance Bill but the debt service burden, youth unemployment, and cost of living remain structurally unresolved.→
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Nile
El-Sisi appeals to Washington over Ethiopia's Nile Dam Apr 10, 2026 Why it matters: The Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia axis against Addis Ababa is hardening into a formal regional bloc.→
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Kenya
Senator Osotsi attacked in Kisumu; opposition demands Interior Ministry accountability Apr 10, 2026 Why it matters: The incident sharpens a long-running confrontation over security impunity and whether Kenya's rules apply equally to opposition figures.→
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Eritrea
Eritrea's diaspora: how a government taxes and controls its people abroad Apr 10, 2026 Why it matters: Eritrea's 2% diaspora tax and PFDJ networks abroad represent one of the most unusual state-diaspora relationships in the world, and a key to understanding the country's future.→
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Horn
Somaliland: 30 years of self-rule, zero international recognition Apr 9, 2026 Why it matters: The question of recognition is now entangled with Ethiopia's Red Sea access bid and Gulf state competition.→
Latest Analysis & Opinion
See all →Why Ethiopia Voted With Israel at the UN
The security logic behind the decision, the diplomatic cost with Arab partners, and what it signals about Abiy Ahmed's increasingly transactional foreign policy.
Blood Over Gold: Resource Conflicts Killing Thousands
A gold mine attack near Juba killed over 70 people. The pattern of resource-linked violence across the Horn, and why it keeps escalating.
Senator Osotsi Attacked in Kisumu: Kenya's Political Violence Problem
Opposition leaders demand Interior Ministry accountability after the senator's attack. What it reveals about security impunity and political risk in Kenya.
Kenya's Mob Justice Problem: When the Crowd Becomes the Court
Suspects beaten and burned by crowds, hundreds of times a year. What it reveals about police failure and institutional collapse.
El-Sisi Appeals to Washington Over Ethiopia's Nile Dam
Egypt's president calls on the US to restrain Ethiopia. The Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia axis against Addis Ababa is deepening.
Somaliland's Recognition Bid: Why the World Keeps Hesitating
Self-governing for over 30 years, with democratic elections and a functioning economy. Why does no country recognise it?
Why Is Sudan at War?
What started the SAF vs RSF conflict, the human cost, and what a realistic way out looks like.
Read explainer → Post-ConflictWhat Was the Tigray Conflict?
Ethiopia's two-year war, its catastrophic human cost, and the fragile peace that followed.
Read explainer → GeopoliticsWhy Does Ethiopia Want Red Sea Access?
A landlocked nation of 130 million and a coastline it lost 30 years ago. What Addis Ababa actually wants.
Read explainer → WaterThe Nile Dam Dispute Explained
Ethiopia's mega-dam, Egypt's existential fear, and Sudan caught between them.
Read explainer → SecurityWhy Has Al-Shabaab Survived 15 Years of War?
Drone strikes and AU troops have not ended it. Al-Shabaab's resilience and revenue model.
Read explainer → PoliticsCan South Sudan Actually Hold Elections?
A peace deal, repeated delays, and a political class with no incentive to cede power.
Read explainer → CrisisSouth Sudan's Polycrisis: Oil, War, and Famine
The world's newest nation is collapsing in slow motion. What went wrong.
Read explainer → GeopoliticsHow a War with Iran Would Hit Ethiopia
Oil, the Red Sea, and UAE investment: tracing the impact chain into the Horn.
Read explainer →
