What Was the Tigray Conflict?
Ethiopia's two-year civil war — one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century
Overview
From November 2020 to November 2022, Ethiopia fought a civil war in its northern Tigray region that became one of the deadliest conflicts anywhere in the world in the past three decades. It pitted the Ethiopian federal government — led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a political party that had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly 30 years before losing power in 2018.
The war involved mass atrocities, systematic sexual violence, deliberate famine, and the participation of Eritrean forces on Ethiopian soil — the same Eritrea that controls ports Ethiopia has been trying to access for decades. A peace deal signed in Pretoria in November 2022 ended the fighting, but its implementation remains incomplete — and the scars it left on Ethiopia and the region run deep.
Background: The TPLF's Fall from Power
For 27 years, the TPLF was the dominant force in the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition that ruled Ethiopia. Though Tigray is one of Ethiopia's smaller regions by population, the TPLF held an outsized grip on the security services, the economy, and political life.
When Abiy Ahmed came to power in April 2018 — riding a wave of popular protest — he quickly moved to dismantle TPLF influence. He merged the EPRDF into a single Prosperity Party, from which the TPLF refused to join. He released political prisoners, made peace with Eritrea (winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019), and restructured the military. That peace deal also reopened debate about Ethiopia's access to Eritrean Red Sea ports. The TPLF retreated to Tigray and began building its own parallel power base.
Tensions escalated through 2020. When Abiy postponed federal elections due to COVID-19, the TPLF held its own regional elections in defiance of Addis Ababa, which declared the result illegitimate. In September 2020, the TPLF declared the federal government illegal.
How the War Started
On the night of 3–4 November 2020, TPLF forces attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) based in Tigray, killing soldiers and seizing equipment. Abiy Ahmed described it as a "red line" being crossed and launched a military offensive into Tigray the following day, promising a swift operation. It lasted two years.
Key Players
Ethiopian Federal Government
Led by PM Abiy Ahmed. Deployed the ENDF alongside Amhara regional forces and Eritrean troops against the TPLF.
The former ruling party of Ethiopia, governing Tigray. Retained significant military capacity from its years in power. Led forces that at one point advanced to within 200km of Addis Ababa.
Eritrea
President Isaias Afwerki sent Eritrean Defence Forces into Tigray to fight alongside Ethiopia. The TPLF and Eritrea had been enemies since the 1998–2000 Eritrea–Ethiopia war. Eritrean troops committed some of the worst documented atrocities.
The US, EU, and UN called for ceasefires and humanitarian access repeatedly. The African Union eventually brokered the Pretoria Agreement. The US imposed limited sanctions on Eritrea.
The Human Cost
Estimates of the death toll vary widely, but credible analyses suggest between 300,000 and 500,000 people died — making this one of the deadliest conflicts globally since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The war involved:
- Deliberate famine — the federal government blockaded food and aid into Tigray for extended periods. The UN World Food Programme reported people dying of hunger.
- Mass sexual violence — documented systematically on all sides, but most extensively attributed to Eritrean and Amhara forces. The UN called it "weaponised rape."
- Civilian massacres — including the Axum massacre (hundreds killed in a single day), the Mai Kadra killings, and numerous village-level atrocities.
- Destruction of infrastructure — hospitals, schools, and economic assets were deliberately targeted.
Timeline of Key Events
- 2018 — Abiy Ahmed becomes PM. TPLF loses national dominance. Abiy signs peace with Eritrea.
- 2020 — TPLF holds defiant regional elections. On 3 November, TPLF attacks Ethiopian military bases. Federal offensive begins.
- 2021 — Ethiopian forces take Mekelle (Tigray capital) in weeks, declare victory. TPLF regroups and launches counteroffensive, retaking Mekelle by June. By October, TPLF forces advance toward Addis Ababa.
- Dec 2021 — TPLF retreats from Afar and Amhara regions. Ethiopian forces regain ground.
- 2022 — Renewed Ethiopian offensive. Humanitarian access remains blocked. AU mediates.
- Nov 2022 — Pretoria Agreement signed between Ethiopian government and TPLF. Formal cessation of hostilities.
- 2023–26 — Peace implementation underway but incomplete. Eritrean troop presence unresolved. Reconstruction slow.
The Pretoria Agreement — and What Remains Unresolved
Signed on 2 November 2022, the Pretoria Agreement ended two years of active warfare. It committed both sides to a permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament of TPLF heavy weapons, restoration of federal authority in Tigray, and the withdrawal of Eritrean forces.
Fighting has largely stopped, but Eritrean troops remain in parts of Tigray. Reconstruction has been slow. Accountability for atrocities remains absent. Some disputed territories between Tigray and Amhara remain contested.
What to Watch Next
- Full withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray
- The status of Western Tigray — claimed by both Tigray and Amhara regions
- Accountability and transitional justice for war crimes
- Reconstruction of Tigray's destroyed infrastructure
- TPLF disarmament and reintegration of fighters
- The relationship between Abiy Ahmed's government and Tigray going forward