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The Horn Signal Brief

The key signals across Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, and the wider Horn — structured, contextualised, and delivered every week.

14+Issues published
7Countries tracked
WeeklyEvery Friday

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Intelligence-style briefing, not headlines

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Signal levels

Each situation rated Critical, Elevated, Watch, or Stable — so you know what actually matters.

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7 countries covered

Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Kenya — every week, every issue.

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Why it matters

Not just what happened — what it means regionally and what to watch for next.

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Named analysts

Written by Daniel Haile, Amira Hassan, Omar Farah, Kalid Kayo, and Yared K Senbeto.

● Critical ● Elevated ● Watch ● Stable

What's in the current brief

Critical · Eritrea – US Diplomacy

Washington opens to Asmara

Boulos meetings underway; sanctions relief reported. Horn geopolitics reshaping faster than regional actors have processed.

Critical · Sudan

El Fasher collapse risk

Famine declared; SAF-RSF war entering year three — pressure accelerating in Darfur with no political process in sight.

Critical · Ethiopia–Tigray

TPLF reclaims government

The Pretoria framework has effectively collapsed. Federal confrontation now more likely than at any point since 2022.

Elevated · Ethiopia–Eritrea

US rapprochement removes Addis Ababa's leverage

Washington's engagement with Asmara on Red Sea terms — no conditions on Tigray withdrawal — leaves Ethiopia facing a diplomatically strengthened adversary.

Read Issue 15 in full →

When and how it works

FRI
Published every Friday

The brief covers the full week of developments, rated by signal level, with context that raw news rarely provides.

7
7 countries, every issue

No country is skipped because a bigger story ran. Each of the seven Horn nations gets its own assessment each week.

Free, always

The Signal Brief is free and will remain so. No paywall, no premium tier, no upsell.

Get the Signal Brief

One email, once a week. The most important Horn of Africa signals, before they become headlines.

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