Ethiopia · September 7, 2026
I Oppose Abiy Ahmed. That Does Not Mean I Have to Support Tsimdo.
Political opposition should not require surrendering independent judgment about the movements that claim to speak for it.
Selected commentary
Opinion and analysis
Arguments are clearly labelled, contributors are identified, and factual claims are linked to supporting material. Older automated publishing output has been retired from this section.
Personal opinion
The contributor’s judgment, distinct from reported news.
Oromo politics
Lencho Leta: The Oromo Nationalist Who Chose Ethiopia
A personal argument about political transformation, nationalism and the questions that remain unanswered.
Tigray · April 2026
The TPLF Has Moved to Take Back Tigray. Here Is What That Actually Means.
An assessment of the structural forces behind Tigray’s political realignment and the risks ahead.
Long-form analysis
A deliberately limited archive of substantial pieces.
Regional order
The Horn’s New Great Game
How outside powers and overlapping proxy alignments are changing the region.
Geoeconomics
Africa’s Wager in a Fractured World
The Horn’s choices between strategic leverage and renewed dependency.
Sudan
Three Years of War
Why Sudan’s catastrophe remains under-addressed and what sustains the conflict.
Ethiopia
Abiy Ahmed’s Dual Gamble
Domestic fragmentation and external ambition are producing compounding pressure.
Tigray
The TPLF Offensive Warning
A sourced assessment of escalation signals and the costs of renewed war.