The conflict that shattered Africa's third-largest country — explained
Sudan's war is not just a military conflict — it is a collapse of a fragile transition from dictatorship to civilian rule.
In April 2023, Sudan descended into one of the world's most devastating conflicts. Two rival military factions — the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — turned their guns on each other, plunging the country into a war that has since killed hundreds of thousands, displaced over 12 million people, and triggered a humanitarian catastrophe on a scale rarely seen in modern history.
This was not a sudden eruption. It was the culmination of years of political failure, broken promises, and two generals who could not share power.
"The Sudan conflict is one of the largest displacement crises in modern history — and one of the least covered by the international press."
— Horn Updates Analysis, March 2026Sudan's modern instability traces back to Omar al-Bashir, the Islamist general who ruled Sudan for 30 years until a popular uprising forced the military to remove him in April 2019. What followed was supposed to be a transition to civilian rule — a fragile power-sharing arrangement between the military and civilian political forces called the Forces of Freedom and Change.
That arrangement was derailed in October 2021, when the SAF and RSF jointly staged a coup, dissolving the civilian government and arresting its leaders. The coup was widely condemned, triggering international sanctions and protests across Sudan. The two generals — SAF chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemeti" — presented themselves as temporary caretakers who would restore civilian rule. They never did.
By early 2023, a new power-sharing framework — the Framework Agreement — was being negotiated, with the RSF slated to eventually integrate into the regular army. That integration process became the flashpoint. Hemeti demanded a 10-year timeline before RSF forces absorbed into the SAF; the SAF wanted two years. Neither side trusted the other. On April 15, 2023, fighting broke out simultaneously across Khartoum and Darfur.
Sudan's official national army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Controls much of eastern Sudan, Port Sudan (de facto capital), and some northern regions. Has received support from Egypt and reportedly from Iran.
A paramilitary force that grew out of the Janjaweed militias responsible for the Darfur genocide. Led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemeti"). Controls most of Khartoum and large parts of Darfur. Has received reported support from the UAE and Russia's Wagner Group.
Egypt backs the SAF. The UAE is accused of arming the RSF via Libya. Saudi Arabia and the US have attempted mediation. The African Union and IGAD have called for ceasefires repeatedly — with no lasting success.
Over 12 million displaced — the largest displacement crisis in the world. Famine declared in multiple states. Mass atrocities documented in Darfur, including killings and sexual violence on a catastrophic scale.
The human cost is staggering. Conservative estimates put the death toll above 150,000, with some analyses suggesting far higher numbers. Over 12 million people have been displaced — internally and across borders into Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan — making this the largest displacement crisis on earth as of 2026.
Famine has been declared in multiple regions. Entire hospital systems have collapsed. Sudan's economy has contracted by more than 20%. Khartoum, once a city of 8 million, has been largely emptied and severely damaged. In Darfur, the RSF and allied Arab militias have been accused of genocide — the second time in two decades that the region has suffered mass atrocities.
The regional spillover is real. Sudanese refugees crossing into Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region are creating pressure on a border community that was already fragile — and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam sits just 15 kilometres from that border. Read our full analysis of how the war is affecting Ethiopia's western border →
No peace agreement in place. Both sides have rejected ceasefire terms. Humanitarian access remains severely restricted. Famine conditions persist in Darfur and Kordofan.
As of early 2026, the war shows no clear end in sight. The SAF controls the east and some northern regions; the RSF controls most of the capital and Darfur. Neither side has achieved a decisive military advantage. International mediation efforts — led variously by the US, Saudi Arabia, and African bodies — have repeatedly failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.
The most likely near-term scenario is continued attrition — neither side strong enough to win decisively, neither willing to negotiate genuinely. The SAF's counteroffensives have recaptured some territory but lack the momentum for a knockout blow. The RSF, holding vast rural and urban terrain, has no urgent military pressure to seek peace.
The danger is that the conflict becomes "frozen" in the way other African civil wars have — not ended, but permanently unresolved — while the humanitarian catastrophe quietly worsens. El Fasher, the last major city in Darfur not under RSF control, is the most immediate flashpoint. If it falls, it would represent a near-total RSF takeover of the west, with catastrophic consequences for civilians still there.
Internationally, pressure on the UAE to halt its reported arms supply to the RSF is the single most meaningful lever available. Whether Western governments apply that pressure seriously — or continue to balance it against Gulf economic interests — is the defining diplomatic question of 2026.