A country navigating fragile state-building, an enduring Al-Shabaab insurgency, and a disputed MOU with Ethiopia that has reshaped regional alliances.
Somalia sits at a strategic crossroads on the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, giving it significant geopolitical weight despite its internal fragility. Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, Somalia has been a case study in the difficulty of state reconstruction. The internationally-backed Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has made incremental progress since 2012, but its authority remains contested by both Al-Shabaab and the country's federal member states.
Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-affiliated insurgency, has proven remarkably durable. Despite facing drone strikes, African Union peacekeeping forces, and successive Somali military offensives, it continues to control significant rural territory, collect taxes in areas it does not formally hold, and conduct mass-casualty attacks in Mogadishu and across the region. The scheduled drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) has raised serious questions about whether the Somali National Army can fill the gap.
Somalia's regional position has grown more complex since the 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which Mogadishu forcefully rejected. The episode pushed Somalia into closer alignment with Egypt, Eritrea, and the Arab League, creating a new axis of opposition to Ethiopia's regional ambitions. This diplomatic realignment has consequences not only for Somali-Ethiopian relations but for the broader architecture of Horn of Africa security. Somalia remains a pivotal actor whose trajectory shapes the stability of East Africa as a whole.
Somaliland has been self-governing for over 30 years, holds democratic elections, and has a functioning economy. Why does no country recognise it?
Egypt's president has called on the US to restrain Ethiopia over the Nile dam. The Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia axis against Addis Ababa is deepening, and Somalia is central to it.